HOOD Earnings Track Record: Beats with a Bearish Drift
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) has beaten the consensus EPS estimate in six of the last eight reported quarters, a 75% beat rate. The average earnings surprise across those eight reports is 16.5%. The most recent quarter, reported on 2026-07-29, was the largest beat in the set: actual EPS of $0.62 versus the $0.44 estimate, a 40.9% surprise. Despite that strong beat history, the average 5-day price move in the five trading days following earnings across those same eight quarters is -8.32%, classified as a downward drift. The direction of the last four single-session reactions confirms that pressure: the stock fell 10.81% on 2025-11-05, 8.91% on 2026-02-10, 13.24% on 2026-04-28, and 3.61% on 2026-07-29. The corresponding 5-day moves were -6.67%, -12.14%, -6.14%, and null%.
Options-Flow Dynamics Heading into Nov. 4
The next scheduled earnings release is after the close on 2026-11-04, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.47. Implied volatility commonly expands ahead of this binary event, and options traders can benchmark that premium against the historical record: a -8.32% average 5-day drift and one-day post-earnings moves ranging from -3.61% to -13.24%. The 75% beat rate and 16.5% average surprise show the headline EPS number has usually cleared the official estimate, yet the directional payoff after the report has repeatedly favored downside movement. That disconnect can shape how traders size positions, structure spreads, and manage gamma into the event. The current stock price of $86.56 is below the 50-day EMA of $96.35, and the RSI sits at 36.0, signaling weakening momentum heading into the report. As a Financial Services / Financial - Capital Markets name, HOOD can also be exposed to broader sector volatility from trading volumes, interest-rate moves, and regulatory headlines.
What a Disciplined Trader Watches
Given the pattern of a 75% beat rate and a -8.32% average 5-day post-earnings drift, a disciplined trader separates the earnings result from the price reaction. Even the 4.6% beat on 2026-02-10 and the 13.4% beat on 2025-11-05 produced one-day drops of 8.91% and 10.81%, respectively. Three watchpoints stand out. First, compare the reported EPS for 2026-11-04 against the $0.47 estimate and note the margin of surprise. Second, track whether the stock holds the current $86.56 level and how it behaves relative to the 50-day EMA of $96.35 in the sessions after the report. Third, measure whether the realized move matches the magnitude of the last four reactions, which produced one-day declines between -3.61% and -13.24%. For a deeper dive into the directional consensus from analysts, hedge funds, and institutional ownership data, readers should review the full institutional verdict for HOOD.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is HOOD's earnings beat rate over the last eight quarters?
HOOD has beaten the consensus EPS estimate in six of the last eight reported quarters, a 75% beat rate, with an average earnings surprise of 16.5%.
How has HOOD stock performed after the last four earnings reports?
Across the last four reports, the one-day moves were -10.81% on 2025-11-05, -8.91% on 2026-02-10, -13.24% on 2026-04-28, and -3.61% on 2026-07-29; the corresponding 5-day moves were -6.67%, -12.14%, -6.14%, and null%.
When is HOOD's next earnings release and what is the consensus estimate?
HOOD is scheduled to report after the close on 2026-11-04, and the current consensus EPS estimate is $0.47.
| Reported | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | 1D Move | 5D Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $0.62 | $0.44 | +40.9% | -3.61% | null% |
| 2026-04-28 | $0.38 | $0.3853 | -1.4% | -13.24% | -6.14% |
| 2026-02-10 | $0.66 | $0.631 | +4.6% | -8.91% | -12.14% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.61 | $0.538 | +13.4% | -10.81% | -6.67% |
| 2025-07-30 | $0.42 | $0.3067 | +36.9% | - | - |
| 2025-04-30 | $0.37 | $0.3253 | +13.7% | - | - |
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